Aviation - a growing industry
Among all transport modes aviation is the one with the highest growth rates. The annual growth is at the moment and most likely in the near future about 5% for passenger transport and 6% for freight transport.
The present climate influence of aviation on the greenhouse effect is maybe smaller than some of us think, but the emissions increase and reductions are much more difficult to achieve than in other areas.
Aviation carbon dioxide emissions, the most important greenhouse gas, presently stand at around 2% of total carbon dioxide emissions from human activities. This share is projected to grow to about 3% by 2050. However, the contribution to global warming is higher, because there are additional mechanisms triggered by emissions from aircraft. We are going to learn about the details in this chapter.
1. Aviation is a transport sector still on the way up. Airbus A319 Source: freefoto.com
The total contribution of aviation on climate change is therefore estimated to be in the range of 3 – 3.5% and could grow to 5% by 2050 (estimations published by IATA*). This does not yet include the impact of cirrus clouds about which the present knowledge is still too poor.
2. So far and projected growth in freight in freight ton kilometers (FTK) according to an estimation from Boeing 2002. Source: Aviation and Sustainability, Stockholm Environment Institute.
Therefore, reducing the impact of aviation to global warming is a necessary and relevant process and a big challenge. The aviation industry has a strong interest to optimise fuel efficiency, so that the engine efficiency of new airplanes is usually the best possible at the respective date of construction. Thus, technical progress in engine efficiency will not offset the high growth rates. It never did in the recent past.
Commercial aircrafts flying on other fuels than kerosene are not yet developed for the day-to-day market. Since the life time of a new airplane is about 30 years, it is clear that the technical development will not prevent that kerosene consumption in aviation will grow during the next 40 years. Other measures have to be taken, if the global warming impact of aviation shall be reduced. We have to focus on a reduction of air transport during the next 30-50 years as long as no clean technologies are found.
Among all transport modes aviation is the one with the highest growth rates. The annual growth is at the moment and most likely in the near future about 5% for passenger transport and 6% for freight transport.
The present climate influence of aviation on the greenhouse effect is maybe smaller than some of us think, but the emissions increase and reductions are much more difficult to achieve than in other areas.
Aviation carbon dioxide emissions, the most important greenhouse gas, presently stand at around 2% of total carbon dioxide emissions from human activities. This share is projected to grow to about 3% by 2050. However, the contribution to global warming is higher, because there are additional mechanisms triggered by emissions from aircraft. We are going to learn about the details in this chapter.
1. Aviation is a transport sector still on the way up. Airbus A319 Source: freefoto.com
The total contribution of aviation on climate change is therefore estimated to be in the range of 3 – 3.5% and could grow to 5% by 2050 (estimations published by IATA*). This does not yet include the impact of cirrus clouds about which the present knowledge is still too poor.
2. So far and projected growth in freight in freight ton kilometers (FTK) according to an estimation from Boeing 2002. Source: Aviation and Sustainability, Stockholm Environment Institute.
Therefore, reducing the impact of aviation to global warming is a necessary and relevant process and a big challenge. The aviation industry has a strong interest to optimise fuel efficiency, so that the engine efficiency of new airplanes is usually the best possible at the respective date of construction. Thus, technical progress in engine efficiency will not offset the high growth rates. It never did in the recent past.
Commercial aircrafts flying on other fuels than kerosene are not yet developed for the day-to-day market. Since the life time of a new airplane is about 30 years, it is clear that the technical development will not prevent that kerosene consumption in aviation will grow during the next 40 years. Other measures have to be taken, if the global warming impact of aviation shall be reduced. We have to focus on a reduction of air transport during the next 30-50 years as long as no clean technologies are found.
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